An Unraveling Axis? What events in Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela mean for China and Russia

Massive anti-regime protests in Iran and recent diplomacy concerning North Korea provide an opportunity to revisit the “axis of authoritarians” argument. Supporters of this argument see the consolidation of an anti-Western axis in the deepening ties among the world’s top non-western autocrats, especially China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, especially since Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine.

               The reality is more complex. On North Korea, there’s no doubt that Russia and North Korea are developing an alliance that has had profound implications for Asian and European security, including the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine. See my latest piece on this here: https://www.ponarseurasia.org/security-implications-of-north-koreas-support-for-russias-war-on-ukraine/.

China’s role is more equivocal—to retain its political influence over Pyongyang, Beijing has distanced from its previous insistence on North Korea’s denuclearization, following Russia’s lead. Yet, this has provided an opportunity for the new leaders of Japan and South Korea to find common ground on a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula. China had been seeking to create a wedge between Seoul and Washington and isolate Japan over Prime Minister’s Sanae Takaichi’s recent restatement of Japanese policy in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Ultimately, Russia’s effort to use North Korea to find a modus vivendi in Northeast Asia has been to the detriment of China’s foreign policy goals in the region.

Iran is a different story. In the summer of 2025, Russia and China largely stood and watched during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, followed by US military strikes on Iran. This is despite the fact that military cooperation with Tehran has been important for Moscow’s war effort and China purchased 13.4% of its seaborne oil from Iran in 2025.  Russia’s president Vladimir Putin has been uncharacteristically silent about events in Iran, though some other Russian officials criticized the US Administration’s threats to intervene militarily as external interference and  “unacceptable” behavior.  

For his part, PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for restraint and dialogue—and opposed the use of force. The PRC Foreign Ministry criticized the threat of external interference and  expressed hope that the Iran would remain peaceful and stable. China also condemned the Trump Administration for threatening to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. China’s partnership with Iran has been largely economic, although regime change would present a serious blow. A democratizing Iran may have ripple effects throughout the broader region, including Central Asia, where China has been enhancing economic ties with its authoritarian neighbors to boost economic connectivity.

As Trump threatened retaliation against Iran’s partners, Iranian ships were poised to join a BRICS naval exercise in South Africa, along with vessels from China, Russia, and the UAE. In the context of an already tense relationship with the US Administration, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa reportedly asked Iran to downgrade its involvement and participate only as an observer.  Multilateral naval exercises have been one of the few signs of multilateral coordination among China, Russia, and Iran to date and even these have been rather underwhelming. For the most part these countries have engaged with each other bilaterally, as I argued in testimony before the US-China Security and Economic Commission last year.

Chinese and Russian officials also have been reasonably restrained in response to US actions in Venezuela. While not typically included in the “axis of authoritarians,” Venezuela has been an appealing partner for China and Russia, both for its oil and its ability to be a thorn in the US side, in our own backyard to boot. Where’s the risk? China now finds itself wondering if Venezuela’s $10 billion debt that it was repaying with oil will ever be fulfilled. China received a small percentage of oil from Venezuela, some 3-4%, but with Iran in the throes of a rebellion, this means that nearly 20% of China’s oil imports is facing considerable uncertainty.

Russia has a much more wide-ranging relationship with Venezuela, including defense ties as well as oil investments, yet the Russian response to the US impounding  some its shadow fleet has been remarkably sanguine. Perhaps Putin has renewed hopes of “exchanging” US acquiescence to Russian freedom of action in Ukraine in exchange for similar “rights” for the US in its own hemisphere, as former US National Security Council Russia expert Fiona Hill testified Russia sought to do back in 2019. In any case Putin may be weighing carefully where he wants to draw red lines, as he keeps his eye on his top priority, Ukraine. Authoritarian solidarity is not what it’s cracked up to be.