Why Russia Matters for China

For China, Russia reduces geopolitical risks but creates others. Take Russia’s political system, for example. Chinese officials may not always be on the same page as their Russian partners on all issues, but a Russia under Putin’s rule is preferable to the tinderbox that might ignite without him, some Chinese observers believe.

In late September 2026, Russia held elections for the State Duma, the lower house of their parliament. Chinese observers followed the predictable results closely. There were no major surprises and the ruling United Russia party maintained its hold on power. This was good news for Beijing. As I said in my most recent article in The Diplomat, “The topic [of Russian elections] is a controversial one in China due to the obvious parallels between the Russian and Chinese political systems and the stake the Chinese leadership has in the stability of their neighbor.” For the complete article, please see https://thediplomat.com/2026/10/chinas-stake-in-the-russian-duma-elections/.

One of the key ways that Russia reduces risk for China is through what they call “back-to-back strategic coordination.” This means that China no longer has to worry about a threat from the north as was the case from the 1960s through the 1980s. Without worrying about a continental threat, China can focus its ambitions on becoming a maritime power. Russia also helps China reduce its energy risk and overland supplies are particularly important given the war in Iran. As I see it, Russia plays an important role in China’s grand stategy. Please see my latest article in China Leadership Monitor: https://www.prcleader.org/post/russia-and-china-s-grand-strategy.

“Is China poised to advance an alternative vision of the global order in partnership with Russia? After gathering momentum during the previous decade, the Sino-Russian partnership has been deepening under Xi Jinping. Since 2022, progress has been notable in military cooperation and, although Sino-Russian economic ties have long been a weak spot, they have made some progress in energy and regional relations. The full-scale war in Ukraine has highlighted China as an indispensable partner for Russia, and it has also increased Russia’s value to China, especially due to the Russian military’s ongoing experience in drone-driven battlespace. Although China and Russia are in alignment in their efforts to counter U.S. power as it comes to bear on their immediate interests, they are not in lockstep in their efforts to envisage an alternative order. Nevertheless, their parallel efforts, especially those built on deeper military cooperation, may have a significant impact on regional dynamics.”